Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. There are other signs, too. For example, the Inflation Reduction Act has spurred investment in manufacturing, ...

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 was supposed to settle the debate over race, redistricting and representation. Instead, it started new ones. Since the act prohibits states from reducing a minority group ...

Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken before the Iowa caucuses and other states’ primary ...

The NFL has had quite an eventful year. In fact, the 2022 season has been characterized by a series of controversies that, when taken together, seem like a microcosm of the criticisms and existential ...

Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of how they did … and the reality is that ...

It used to be, if you wanted to see a Poweshiek skipperling butterfly, the thing to do was go out on the prairie and stare into the middle distance, like you were trying to see a sailboat buried in a ...

I’m not that impressed by long-term projections of Democratic doom in the Senate. Mostly that’s because I’m not that impressed by long-term political projections in general. Political coalitions ...

“Can we trust election polls?” is a question that has reached a fever pitch in political junkie circles dating back to the 2016 election. One popular theory about why election polls missed in 2016 and ...

All market ratings are adjusted for projected population growth through 2040. Popularity measured by Google Trends. Sources: Zach Miller, Google Trends, The New York Times, CollegeRaptor.com, ...

To state the obvious: A lot is at stake in November. The 2022 midterm elections will not only decide control of both the U.S. House and Senate, but also who sits behind the governor’s desk in 36 out ...

History suggests that President Biden and the Democratic Party will lose control of the House — and possibly the Senate — in this year’s midterms. It’s worth digging into the data behind this rule, ...

Apportionment, or the process of determining the number of seats each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives, happens like clockwork at this point. Every 10 years, the Census Bureau counts how ...